Blog

Notes from the
trading desk.

Weekly market commentary, deep dives into our ML models, and lessons from running an institutional-grade intelligence terminal.

How CAESAR scores conviction in 2026

A walkthrough of the latest revision to our flagship conviction model - including the new hysteresis layer that stops weekend bias flips.

Mapping global risk: how MARS scores regions

Inside the source-authority tiering, trade-chokepoint detection, and the contagion model that links escalations to asset prices.

Why volatility looks compressed - and what could break it

Our weekly note on positioning, breadth, and the macro variables that could pull realised vol higher in Q3.

Backtesting like a quant, without the maths PhD

A practical guide to walk-forward validation, realistic slippage modelling, and avoiding the curve-fit trap.

PLUTO and the language of dark pools

How we turn fragmented off-exchange prints into a single score - and why it's the only flow indicator we trust.

The carry trade is dead. Long live the carry trade.

JPY funding, USD term premium, and why classic FX carry is broken - with our new framework for the regime that's replacing it.

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